Samenvatting

Far-reaching policy changes, such as a reintroduction of a study grant system, often evolve in a fragmented and intermittent manner. They are usually preceded by a series of incidents and media attention, and a succession of smaller and larger policy proposals. Existing policy theories focus on major changes or on the smaller step-by-step changes. What is missing is an integrated story in which the entire process, with incidents, media attention and interim adjustments, is brought together.
We argue that an ecological tipping-point theory is a useful addition to existing policy-change theories. Our study of Article 23 of the Constitution, which regulates the freedom of education in the Netherlands, shows that a succession of incidents (disturbances) has increased the stress within the policy system and increased the likelihood of a policy adjustment. However, change should not be taken for granted. Understanding policy change trajectories as ecosystem changes can help policymakers to transition from one stable policy system to another.